Prediction & Point Mechanics

Every registered user starts with 100 points to make predictions and engage in DeFi simulations. These points are used to participate in two main types of prediction markets - each with distinct mechanics that also tie into deeper DeFi strategy modeling.

Up/Down Predictions

A simple way to express directional market views in a gamified environment. In this prediction mode, users attempt to forecast whether the price of a given asset (e.g., ETH) will go up or down after a fixed interval.

Here’s how it works:

1- Prediction Window (First 15 mins): Users make their predictions during the first 15 mins by selecting either UP or DOWN for the asset’s price movement.

2- Price Lock (End of Hour 1): After the 15 mins, the current market price is locked as the reference point. All predictions made during the first 15 mins will be evaluated based on this locked price.

3- Waiting Phase (Second 15 mins): Second 15 mins waiting period begins. During this phase, no new predictions are allowed, and the market continues to move freely.

4- Settlement (End of second 15 mins): At the end of the second 15 mins, the price is checked again and compared to the locked price from first 15 mins.

• When making a prediction, users commits a portion of their points.

• If the prediction is correct, the user earns a 1:1 in points (e.g., commit 10 → earn 10).

• If the prediction is incorrect, the committed points are lost.

Price Range Predictions

A more strategic approach aligned with DeFi principles. Users predict the price range that an asset (e.g., ETH) will fall within after a specific time frame, such as 1 day or 1 week.

Here’s how it works:

1- Prediction Window (Day 1): Users select a price range and make their predictions during the 24-hour entry period. They also choose the duration of their prediction - either 1 day or 1 week.

2- Wait Period (End of Day 1): Once the prediction window closes, the waiting period begins, based on the selected duration (1 day or 1 week). No more predictions are allowed.

3- Settlement (End of the waiting period): The final price is at the end of the waiting period compared to the range the user predicted.

• Users stake points on their selected range.

• If the price lands within that range after the set duration: Earn 1:1

• If not: Lose your committed points.

DeFi Score: APY-Based Reputation

Every price range prediction is also used as input for a simulated backtest, as if the user were opening a Uniswap V3 liquidity position with that prediction.

We use 3 key inputs from the prediction:

1. Duration of the prediction = Duration of the backtest

2. Selected price range = Uni V3 liquidity range

3. Points committed = Virtual capital allocated (1 point = $1,000)

4. The asset for which the price is predicted = The asset to which liquidity will be added (e.g., ETH/USDT pool for ETH predictions)

At the end of the period, we calculate the simulated APY based on real historical price movement.

• For every 1% APY earned in the simulation, the user receives 10 DeFi Score points.

These points are not spendable but act as a reputation layer within the ecosystem - impacting user ranks, airdrops, and access to premium features.