Prediction & Point Mechanics

Every registered user starts with 100 points to make predictions and engage in DeFi simulations. These points are used to participate in two main types of prediction markets - each with distinct mechanics that also tie into deeper DeFi strategy modeling.

Up/Down Predictions

A simple way to express directional market views in a gamified environment. In this prediction mode, users attempt to forecast whether the price of a given asset (e.g., ETH) will go up or down after a fixed interval.

Here’s how it works:

1- Prediction Window (First 15 mins): Users make their predictions during the first 15 mins by selecting either UP or DOWN for the asset’s price movement.

2- Price Lock (End of First 15 mins): After the first 15 mins, the current market price is locked as the reference point. All UP or DOWN predictions made during the first 15 mins will be evaluated based on this locked price.

3- Waiting Phase (Second 15 mins): Second 15 mins waiting period begins. During this phase, no new predictions are allowed, and the market continues to move freely.

4- Settlement (End of second 15 mins): At the end of the second 15 mins, the end price is recorded and compared to the locked price from the first 15 mins:

• If End Price > Lock Price: UP predictions are correct.

• If Lock Price > End price: DOWN predictions are correct.

• When making a prediction, users commits a portion of their points.

• If the prediction is correct, the user earns a 1:1 in points (e.g., commit 10 → earn 10).

• If the prediction is incorrect, the committed points are lost.

Price Range Predictions

A more strategic approach aligned with DeFi principles. Users predict the price range that an asset (e.g., ETH) will fall within after a specific time frame, such as 1 day or 1 week.

Here’s how it works:

1- Prediction Window (Day 1): Users select a price range and make their predictions during the 24-hour entry period. They also choose the duration of their prediction - either 1 day or 1 week.

2- Wait Period (End of Day 1): Once the prediction window closes, the waiting period begins, based on the selected duration (1 day or 1 week). No more predictions are allowed.

3- Settlement (End of the waiting period): The final price is at the end of the waiting period compared to the range the user predicted.

• Users stake points on their selected range.

• If the price lands within that range after the set duration: Earn 1:1

• If not: Lose your committed points.

DeFi Score: APY-Based Reputation

Every price range prediction is also used as input for a simulated backtest, as if the user were opening a Uniswap V3 liquidity position with that prediction.

We use 3 key inputs from the prediction:

1. Duration of the prediction = Duration of the backtest

2. Selected price range = Uni V3 liquidity range

3. Points committed = Virtual capital allocated (1 point = $1,000)

4. The asset for which the price is predicted = The asset to which liquidity will be added (e.g., ETH/USDT pool for ETH predictions)

At the end of the period, we calculate the simulated APY based on real historical price movement.

• For every 1% APY earned in the simulation, the user receives 10 DeFi Score points.

These points are not spendable but act as a reputation layer within the ecosystem - impacting user ranks, airdrops, and access to premium features.